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What happens here on election night

As soon as the first polling districts have been counted, the map shows the leading party in every constituency, the results table shows how far counting has progressed, and a second table shows the state-wide secondary-vote result together with the seat distribution in parliament. Updated every minute.

But the real point is a different one. A constituency is decided as soon as the leading party's margin is greater than the number of eligible voters still to be counted. From that moment nobody can catch up — often long before the official result is in.

The same calculation answers the question that keeps election night guessing longest: who clears the five per cent threshold? A party is certain of entering parliament as soon as it would stay above five per cent even if not a single one of the outstanding votes went to it. It has certainly failed as soon as even all the outstanding votes together would no longer be enough. As a rule both are settled considerably earlier than the first constituency.

The same reasoning answers the evening's question of power: can a party still win an absolute majority of seats? It is ruled out as soon as even all the outstanding votes together would no longer carry the party past half the seats. As a rule this is settled party by party over the course of the evening, until it is clear whether anyone could govern alone at all. These are exactly the analyses you will find here.

The seat distribution, by contrast, is an interim figure and not a limit: it shows what parliament would look like if counting stopped where it stands, and it shifts over the course of the evening. All figures are interim and without guarantee. Only the result declared by the relevant Returning Officer is official.