Prior to the European elections, we had created a nowcast projection for the 400 counties and independent cities in Germany with survey values of 5 June 2024 (map below left). As strongest party, the projection saw the CDU / CSU ahead in 314, Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen in 14, the SPD in 10 and the AfD in 62 counties and independent cities.
| Strongest party (counties) | Nowcast 05.06.2024 | European elections 09.06.2024 | Matches (number) |
| CDU/CSU | 314 | 315 | 304 |
| SPD | 10 | 4 | 3 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| AfD | 62 | 69 | 60 |
| Total | 400 | 400 | 378 |
In the European elections of 9 June 2024, the CDU / CSU was the strongest force in 315, Bündnis 90 / The Greens in 12, the SPD in 4 and the AfD in 69 counties and independent cities (map above right).
Match-ups of 94.5%
In a total of 378 counties and independent cities, the projection of the strongest party and the election results matched up. This corresponds to a match-up rate of 94.5%.
The nowcast was explicitly not a forecast, but a projection using aggregated survey values relevant for the timing of the survey – here 4 days before the election. In this respect, part of the non-agreement can be traced back to the fact that the survey values did not match the election result exactly, which will generally never be the case due to final changes in the opinions of the voters. However, the average deviation of the survey average compared to the final result was only 1.2% per party.
| Polling & election results (%) | Nowcast 05.06.2024 | European elections 09.06.2024 | Deviation (%) |
| CDU/CSU | 29.7% | 30.0% | 0.3% |
| SPD | 14.4% | 13.9% | 0.5% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 14.1% | 11.9% | 2.2% |
| AfD | 14.7% | 15.9% | 1.2% |
| Linke | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| FDP | 4.1% | 5.2% | 1.1% |
| BSW | 6.3% | 6.2% | 0.1% |
| Freie Wähler | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Others | 8.9% | 11.5% | 2.6% |
| Total / ø | 100% | 100% | 1.2% |
The robustness of the measured survey values as well as the nowcast projection model can be seen by modeling if the deviation of the survey values from the the election result would have been exactly 0%. In this case, a total of 380 counties and independent cities would have had a matching of the respective strongest party between projection and election result. In essence, only 2 further counties and would have matched up correctly, giving a match-up rate of 95%.
Average deviation of 1.9% per county and party
The statistical analysis further reveals that the average values per district and party determined in the nowcast of 5 June 2024 deviated by only 1.9% from the actual election results of the European elections of 9 June 2024 in the 400 counties and independent cities in Germany. An average deviation of > 3% was only recorded for the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), which had not run in the previous election in 2019.
| Party | Average deviation of nowcast (05.06.2024) from European elections (09.06.2024) per county and party (%) |
| CDU/CSU | 1.8% |
| SPD | 1.1% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 2.5% |
| AfD | 2.5% |
| Linke | 1.0% |
| FDP | 1.3% |
| BSW | 3.1% |
| Freie Wähler | 1.9% |
| Others | 2.4% |
| Total | 1.9% |
More details here on the nowcasts and results of the European elections in Germany.
